JPMorgan sees 10% annual bitcoin returns, topping stocks, bonds and gold over next decade

Investment banking behemoth JPMorgan (JPM) expects bitcoin BTC$81,402.42 to outperform U.S. stocks, bonds and gold over the next 10 years.

JPMorgan forecasted a base case of 10% annualized returns for bitcoin over the next 10 years in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report on Tuesday. The bank also set a bear case of -9.7% and a bull case of 17%.

The figure compared to projected 5.6%-6.6% growth in U.S. bonds, 7.5% and 7.7% in U.S. large and small-cap equities respectively and 5.5% in gold.

The report marks the first time JPMorgan has put a range on bitcoin returns in its research.

The New York based banking group has a complicated history with cryptocurrency, largely due to the association of CEO Jamie Dimon’s widely publicized views of bitcoin. Dimon famously described the world’s largest crypto as a “fraud” in 2017, a skeptical position he has reiterated with somewhat softer verbiage in recent years.

JPMorgan maintained a cautious view of bitcoin in Tuesday’s report, saying its “volatility and unstable correlation to other asset classes…remain an obstacle to [its] widespread inclusion in portfolios.”

Furthermore, the bank does not make a case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier, instead viewing it as a “speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing,” according to comments by portfolio manager Dr Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo.

“It lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains,” they added.

“BTC mostly trades like a high beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as ‘digital gold.’ Unstable correlations with other assets present a modeling hurdle. A further challenge is forecasting an asset whose fundamentals are not cash flows and whose economics may be as much about adoption, regulation and liquidity as technology.”